Cyclone strengthening; could make landfall along Pakistani coast on 15th.
Cyclone strengthening;
could make landfall along Pakistani coast on 15thPMD reports that the storm is located at 830 kilometres south of Thatta and 930 km southeast of Ormara.There is a high probability that Biparjoy, a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS), will become an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) during the next 24 hours and make landfall along the coast of southeast Sindh sometime on June 15th, anywhere between the beaches of Pakistan, the Rann of Kutch in India, and the state of Gujarat in Pakistan.On Saturday, experts from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) predicted that a severe cyclone, or a cyclone with wind speeds of 90 to 105 kmph, would strike the shores of Pakistan.
Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm
The system has the potential to become an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) for at least the next 24 hours due to the favourable climatic circumstances (a sea surface temperature of 30-32C, minimal vertical wind shear, and upper-level divergence). According to Dr. Sardar Sarfraz, Sindh’s Chief Meteorological Officer (CMO), “the storm can make landfall between southeast Sindh and Rann of Kutch on or around June 15, 2023,” based on current models and climate conditions.According to Dr. Sarfraz, VSCS Biparjoy in the east-central Arabian Sea has kept its intensity, moved north-northeast over the past 12 hours, and is located about 840 kilometres south of Karachi, 830 kilometres south of Thatta, and 980 kilometres southeast of Ormara.
Sea conditions
Sea conditions are fantastic near the system centre, with maximum wave heights of 25-28 feet. Maximum sustained surface winds are 130-140 km/h, with gusts to 150 km/h. The current upper-level steering winds suggest that VSCS Biparjoy (also spelt Biporjoy) will continue to move north-northeast, possibly approaching the southeast coast of Sindh and Gujarat in India.Based on its likely north-northeast track, the PMD official predicted that a rain-thunderstorm with very heavy falls and squally winds (60-80 Km/hour) would hit southern/south-eastern Sindh (Karachi, Thatta, Sujawal, Badin, Tharparkar, and Mirpurkhas districts) on the evening/night of 13 June.
toppled buildings
Damage to flimsy and easily-toppled buildings (Kutcha homes) is possible during a squall. He warned fishermen not to go out into the open sea beginning tomorrow, June 11, 2023, until the system has passed, as the Arabian Sea may become very rough/high accompanied by high tides along the coast, and he cited the PMD Cyclone Advisory as evidence.Similarly, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released a bulletin on June 15, 2023, predicting that Biparjoy would make landfall along the coast of Pakistan as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with wind speeds of 90-105 kmph on the evening of June 15, 2023.The predicted path of Cyclone Biparjoy is eerily similar to that of Cyclone Aijaz, which struck Pakistan and India in May 1999, killing an estimated 6,400 people and wreaking havoc on the country’s southeastern Sindh coast.
former director general
Dr. Ghulam Rasool, the former director general of the Pakistan Meteorological Department, has predicted that the cyclone will strengthen to a category 5 level during the next 24 hours and continue its path towards the coast of Sindh. It will probably hit the ground somewhere between Badin and the Indo-Pakistani border. Gale gusts surpassing 100 km/h speed and very heavy downpours expected from 13 June from Karachi towards eastern coastal locations, peaking on 15 June.As Cyclone Biparjoy headed towards Karachi, the Prime Minister ordered emergency preparations to begin immediately.He requested that the NDMA work in advance with the Sindh administration and provincial agencies. He also issued an order for the people of Balochistan to receive full support in the event of rains and storms.
